The World Nuclear Association’s Nuclear Fuel Report considers three scenarios:
| Scenario | Nuclear Capacity by 2040 | Uranium Demand by 2040 (tU/yr) |
|---|---|---|
| Lower Scenario (delays assumed) | 486 GWe | ~87,000 |
| Reference Scenario (government targets) | 686 GWe | ~130,000 |
| Upper Scenario (net-zero ambitions) | 931 GWe | ~184,300 |
Current (2023) world reactor requirements for uranium are estimated at about 65,650 tU per year.
Key trends from the report:
- Lifetime extensions: Several countries are extending reactor operating lifetimes to 60 years (and up to 80 years in the USA). Up to 140 reactors could benefit from extended operation by 2040.
- SMRs contribute up to 10% of total new capacity in the Upper Scenario by 2040.
- Secondary uranium supplies (stockpiles, re-enrichment of tails, ex-military material) are expected to diminish from 11—14% of supply to 4—11% by 2050.